📊 Expected Value Calculator

Calculate the expected value (EV) of your bets to identify profitable betting opportunities

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Expected Value Calculator

Single Bet Expected Value

Your estimated chance of winning this bet

Understanding Expected Value

Expected Value (EV) is the average amount you can expect to win or lose per bet if you placed the same bet many times. It's the foundation of profitable sports betting.

Expected Value Formula

EV = (Win Probability × Profit) - (Loss Probability × Stake)
Where Win Probability + Loss Probability = 1 (100%)

✅ Positive EV (+EV)

When EV > 0, the bet is profitable long-term. Your estimated win probability is higher than the bookmaker's implied probability.

Example: EV = +$5 means you expect to profit $5 per bet on average

❌ Negative EV (-EV)

When EV < 0, the bet loses money long-term. The bookmaker has an edge over your probability estimate.

Example: EV = -$3 means you expect to lose $3 per bet on average

EV Calculation Examples

🧮 Step-by-Step Example

Bet: $100 on Team A at +150 odds (2.50 decimal)
Your Estimate: 50% win probability

Calculation:
• Potential Profit: $100 × 1.50 = $150
• Win Probability: 50% (0.50)
• Loss Probability: 50% (0.50)
• EV = (0.50 × $150) - (0.50 × $100) = $75 - $50 = +$25
✅ This is a +EV bet worth taking!

📊 Quick EV Check

Compare your win probability to implied probability:

+150 odds = 40% implied probability
Your estimate: 50%
Since 50% > 40%, this is likely +EV

⚠️ Common Mistake

Overestimating win probabilities leads to false +EV calculations. Be conservative and realistic with your estimates.

EV Betting Strategy Guide

✅ Best Practices

  • Only bet when EV is positive
  • Use conservative probability estimates
  • Track actual results vs predictions
  • Consider variance in short term
  • Use proper bankroll management

⚠️ Common Pitfalls

  • Overconfidence in probability estimates
  • Ignoring variance and going on tilt
  • Not tracking long-term results
  • Betting on -EV just for action
  • Using poor bankroll management

Pros and Cons of EV Betting

✅ Pros

  • Mathematical foundation for betting
  • Long-term profitability when done right
  • Removes emotion from betting decisions
  • Helps identify value opportunities
  • Works across all sports and markets

❌ Cons

  • Requires accurate probability estimation
  • Short-term variance can be significant
  • Difficult to estimate true probabilities
  • Overconfidence leads to poor results
  • Requires discipline and patience

Frequently Asked Questions